Project 2025 Update: Immigration
Putting on a show
A cornerstone of Donald Trump’s governing philosophy is that the people of the United States have been continually invaded by “others” for decades and need to be saved by their strong executive leader.
“A nation of immigrants” is a principal notion of the mythology of the U.S., despite that we have rarely been a particularly welcoming place for immigrants (see, for example, the Chinese Exclusion Act, the Immigration Restriction League, and the Immigration Act of 1917). There has always been a strain of nativism in American politics, from the Alien and Sedition Acts to the Know Nothing Party, up until now, with MAGA. Post WWII, immigration allowances increased dramatically, especially for people displaced by the war (but see efforts like the brutal Operation Wetback), culminating in the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, upon which our current immigration law is based.
Despite the difficulties, tens of millions of immigrants have come to the U.S. anyway. Most of us are immigrants ourselves or descendants of immigrants that arrived well after the U.S. Constitution was ratified. Today, the number of immigrants entering the U.S. is higher than ever, but immigrants as a share of the total U.S. population is similar to that at the turn of the 20th century, ~15%.
Funnily enough, Trump recently said of the U.S. that “we were at our richest from 1870 to 1930,” when immigration was historically high. Economists generally believe that “richest” period claim to be untrue, even though it was a period of economic growth. Immigrants can fuel economic growth, especially for nations facing population decline. The relatively high recent immigration is thought to have helped us recover population growth after the COVID-19 pandemic.
It was no surprise that Trump began his second administration with a rapidly instituted crackdown on illegal immigration. Given that he spoke so openly about it during his campaign and given that Americans have been increasingly concerned about immigration for years, it is one policy area where Trump arguably had a real mandate to deliver on his promises.
Most Americans think immigration should decrease. Yet, most Americans believe that undocumented immigrants should have pathways for remaining (but not most Trump supporters). There is popular support for the Trump Administration’s current actions (but Democrats say he is doing “too much”). In 2023, there was widespread disapproval of the handling of the US-Mexico border. A pre-election Axios poll that caused much haranguing among the chattering classes demonstrated that most Americans supported a policy of mass deportations, including 42% of Democrats.
Why the animosity towards immigrants? A lot of people will toss off specious economic or public safety or national security arguments, and I don’t know what really drives these opinions. Trump, however, has told us that he believes immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” indicating that it’s quite simply racism that drives his dislike for immigrants.
Project 2025, written in the wake of the first Trump Administration and the MAGAfication of the conservative agenda, almost entirely aligns with the Trump/MAGA extreme immigration positions.
And yet, Trump still went above and beyond his instructions from the Heritage Foundation. Revoking Birthright Citizenship is not mentioned in Project 2025. Neither is sending migrants to Guantanamo Bay, or non-Panamanian migrants to Panama, where they are kept in a camp in the Darien.
That said, the implementation of Trump’s immigration policy broadly follows the instructions from the Heritage Foundation. Republicans in Congress especially have been using Project 2025 as a guidebook, submitting several bills that tick off the P25 to-do list.
There is, however, a difference between issuing policy and getting results. A photo-op of the Secretary of Homeland Security on horseback is not the same as proving deportations of violent criminals are up. In its first month, the Trump Administration has deported fewer people than the Biden Administration did per month in 2024. Given all of the military flights they’ve been using, I’d imagine the Trump deportations are also more expensive. The acting ICE director has already been removed for not making enough arrests. It could be that Trump is effectively deterring migrants. It could also be that these preparations are necessary for a large ramp-up in arrests.
Or, it could be that forcing mass migration is hard, and likely to elicit backlash as more Americans realize that it isn’t just criminals that are being targeted. So, the Trump Administration is beginning by putting on a show and creating fear. They are succeeding. The national rhetoric around immigration is toxic and racist. Even the Vice President is a vocal apologist for blatantly racist government officials. We are already seeing the tragic cultural effects. An 11-year old girl in Texas recently committed suicide. She was bullied by her classmates, who were threatening to call ICE on her Hispanic parents.
There is other evidence that the Trump Administration’s actions are not an effort to “fix” the immigration system. For instance, firing administrative immigration judges while there is a backlog of pending immigration cases (and even against the recommendation of Project 2025) makes it clear that the Administration is not operating in good faith. Their goal is not to more rapidly adjudicate claims. The goal is simply to prevent “others” from coming or staying, regardless of the law, the intent of the law, or the worthiness of their claims or talents. It’s to keep America for Americans, whomever Americans are (and white Afrikaners too, I suppose*).
*Trump’s one exception to denying refugee admissions.
Below I’ve identified several immigration actions suggested by Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership that have been addressed to some extent by this government. In a futile attempt at brevity, I’ve left out some for which I haven’t seen any progress as well as recommendations that are organizational in nature. Green notes where the Trump Administration has broadly fulfilled the recommendation. Yellow means it’s sort-of fulfilled, but with caveats. Red means that the Admin did the opposite of the recommendation. (The colors are loose evaluations.)
Abbreviations:
CBP = Customs and Border Patrol
DACA = Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals
DHS = Department of Homeland Security
EO = Executive Order
ICE = Immigrations and Custom Enforcement
INA = Immigration and Naturalization Act
Very good summary of immigration to USA going all the way back to the Alien and Sedition acts. I am teaching immigration history this semester to my international ESL students. Many are confused why Americans don't welcome them here. Irish Catholics are part of the topic today. Religion predjudice. Then there is racism towards non European. Many Trumpists check both boxes and several more. Glad you called out the Afrikaner Elon. He learned it is pre immigrant country. Big shows make it look like Donnie is ridding us of the invasion. Glad to hear the results don't match the previous numbers and I hope it stays that way. I will look at the table on a big screen. Thanks for your details. I will use some of them in my classes.